Winning Probability and Match Preview for Angels vs Tigers – 8/27/2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal standings. The Tigers, with a record of 66-66, are in the middle of an average season, while the Angels languish at 54-77, marking a disappointing campaign. This matchup is particularly important for the Tigers, as they aim to maintain some momentum after their last game, where they showcased their struggles.

On the mound, Detroit will send out Brant Hurter, a left-handed pitcher who has had an average year. With a 1-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.57, Hurter’s underlying metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this season, projecting to improve. However, he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings on average today, which raises concerns. Conversely, the Angels will counter with Johnny Cueto, who has had a rough outing this season, with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 4.26. His projections suggest he may struggle against a Tigers lineup that, despite ranking 26th overall in MLB offense, still poses a threat.

The Angels’ offense ranks 25th in the league, but their speed on the bases, ranking 7th in stolen bases, could provide an edge. With both teams struggling offensively, this game presents a critical opportunity for the Tigers to capitalize on their home advantage. The projections favor the Tigers, who are given an implied team total of 5.21 runs, compared to the Angels’ 4.29 runs. Given their slightly better overall performance this season, the Tigers may find a path to victory in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Johnny Cueto – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Johnny Cueto has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Anthony Rendon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Anthony Rendon is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Brant Hurter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Because of his large platoon split, Brant Hurter will have a tough challenge going up against 8 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jake Rogers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 94-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brant Hurter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 games (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Jo Adell has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 36 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)