White Sox vs Marlins Picks and Odds – July 06, 2024

Chicago White Sox

@

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox are set to face off on July 6, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in the second game of their series. Both teams are enduring rough seasons, with the Marlins holding a 30-58 record and the White Sox not far behind at 26-64. Despite these struggles, the pitching matchup offers an interesting contrast. Miami’s Yonny Chirinos will take the mound against Chicago’s Garrett Crochet.

Chirinos, a right-hander, has started three games this year, posting a 3.77 ERA. However, his 4.43 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and might regress. His high-flyball rate (45%) could be a point of concern, but the White Sox’s lack of power (26th in team home runs) might mitigate this issue. Chirinos is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.0 batters on average, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with left-hander Garrett Crochet. With 18 starts under his belt this season, Crochet boasts a 3.02 ERA, although his 2.33 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and might perform even better moving forward. Crochet is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 6.5 batters on average.

Offensively, both teams have struggled mightily. The Marlins rank 30th in overall offensive talent and home runs, while the White Sox aren’t much better, ranking 29th in overall offense and 28th in batting average. Over the past week, Jesus Sanchez has been a bright spot for Miami, hitting .333 with a 1.095 OPS, while Lenyn Sosa has led Chicago with a .462 average and a 1.289 OPS.

With a low game total of 7.0 runs and the White Sox as the betting favorites (-165), this matchup will likely hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. While Crochet’s elite status gives Chicago an edge, Miami’s recent offensive spark from Sanchez could make things interesting.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Garrett Crochet has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Paul DeJong has big-time HR ability (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (30.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Yonny Chirinos has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Yonny Chirinos – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Yonny Chirinos has notched a 16.1% K% since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Bryan De La Cruz has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Luis Robert has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)