White Sox vs Blue Jays Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 6/22/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 22, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre. This matchup is particularly noteworthy, as the Blue Jays are coming off a decisive 7-1 victory against the White Sox just a day earlier. While the Blue Jays are enjoying an above-average season with a record of 41-35, the White Sox are struggling significantly at 24-53, marking one of the worst records in MLB.

The pitching matchup features Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Adrian Houser for the White Sox. Bassitt, a right-handed pitcher, has had a solid season with a 7-3 record and a respectable 3.75 ERA. Although he ranks as the 102nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his projections indicate he should pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. This suggests a stable outing against a struggling White Sox lineup that ranks dead last in offensive performance, including a 30th place standing in team batting average.

Conversely, Houser has shown flashes of brilliance this season with an impressive 2.15 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.04 suggests he may not sustain this level of success. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing about 2.8 earned runs, but his low strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a Blue Jays offense that is adept at putting the ball in play.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 13th overall, with a strong batting average of .274, while the White Sox’s offense is last in the league, struggling to generate runs consistently. Toronto’s bullpen is also notably stronger, ranking 7th compared to Chicago’s 27th.

Given the current odds, the Blue Jays are favored with a high implied team total of 4.90 runs, while the White Sox sit at a low 3.60. With the White Sox’s recent struggles and the Blue Jays’ solid form, this game shapes up to heavily favor Toronto.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Adrian Houser’s fastball velocity has risen 1.2 mph this season (93.3 mph) over where it was last season (92.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Josh Rojas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 5.7% rate last season has decreased to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago White Sox have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Teel, Luis Robert Jr., Ryan Noda, Michael A. Taylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Chris Bassitt is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #4 HR venue in the league — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Andres Gimenez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 78.4-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Michael A. Taylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 70% ROI)