Weather for Yankees vs Mariners Game – 9/18/24

New York Yankees

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are set to face off against the New York Yankees at T-Mobile Park on September 18, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Yankees hold a strong position in the league with an 88-63 record, reflecting a stellar season thus far. In contrast, the Mariners are navigating an average year with a 77-74 record, putting them on the fringe of postseason contention, but still in the hunt as the regular season winds down.

In their last encounter on September 17, the Yankees dominated the Mariners with an 11-2 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. Leading the charge for New York is Aaron Judge, who not only carries a .323 batting average but also ranks 1st in MLB with 53 home runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners will be looking to bounce back, relying on Victor Robles who has been hot at the plate over the last week with a .500 batting average and five stolen bases.

Taking the mound for Seattle is Bryce Miller, who boasts an impressive 3.12 ERA, ranking as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his above-average performance this season, his peripheral stats suggest some regression might be on the horizon. Miller faces the daunting task of containing the Yankees, who lead the league in home runs and are ranked as the 3rd best offense overall. Nestor Cortes will counter for New York, sporting a solid 3.90 ERA and the 50th best rank among MLB pitchers. Cortes’s good control will be key against the Mariners, who are among the most patient teams at the plate.

With both teams vying for wins, the Yankees enter with a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, placing their win probability at 55% compared to the Mariners’ 45%. Betting markets also anticipate a close contest, making this clash a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because groundball pitchers have a significant edge over groundball batters, Nestor Cortes and his 42.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup squaring off against 5 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Despite posting a .468 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has been very fortunate given the .043 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .425.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Yankees projected offense ranks as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bryce Miller has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.3% more often this year (39.2%) than he did last year (33.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 75 away games (+14.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+13.70 Units / 76% ROI)