Weather for Yankees vs Athletics Game – 9/21/24

New York Yankees

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 21, 2024, the two teams are headed in different directions this season. The Athletics, with a record of 67-87, find themselves out of division contention and on the wrong end of what can only be described as a rough season. In contrast, the Yankees sit comfortably near the top of the standings with a 90-64 record, showcasing their consistent performance this year.

The Yankees come into this American League matchup as notable favorites. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Yankees hold a 58% win probability, slightly surpassing the market’s implied odds of 62%. The Athletics are projected as the underdogs, yet with a potential edge in value given their 42% projected win probability against an implied 38%. Bettors might find it worthwhile to explore the value in backing the Athletics.

Oakland’s JP Sears, ranked 176th in starting pitcher Power Rankings, will take the mound. Sears, a left-hander with a 4.24 ERA and a high-flyball tendency, could struggle against the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs this season. Sears will need to keep the ball down, as New York’s sluggers, especially Juan Soto—who’s been hot over the past week with a 1.164 OPS—can easily capitalize on any mistakes.

Opposing him is Carlos Rodon, the Yankees’ left-hander, ranked 88th in Power Rankings. Rodon boasts a 4.12 ERA and is primed to exploit the Athletics’ 4th-highest strikeout rate. His high-strikeout approach aligns well against an Athletics offense that’s been prone to whiffs all season.

With playoff implications for the Yankees, this game holds considerable weight. Oakland Coliseum could witness a clash where the Athletics’ underdog spirit meets the Yankees’ playoff aspirations, presenting intriguing angles for fans and bettors alike.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.7% compared to 39.6% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Aaron Judge has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96-mph to 98.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jose Trevino, the Yankees’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  JP Sears’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.3 mph) below where it was last season (92.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for J.J. Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Oakland Athletics batters collectively have been one of the best in baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 65 away games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)