Weather for Yankees vs Athletics Game – 9/21/24

New York Yankees

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the New York Yankees at the Oakland Coliseum on September 21, 2024, the disparity between the two teams’ seasons is evident. The Athletics, with a 67-87 record, are enduring a difficult year, while the Yankees are thriving with a 90-64 record. This matchup, the second in their series, follows a 4-2 victory for the Yankees on September 20, highlighting their dominance.

On the mound, the Athletics will send JP Sears, a lefty ranked #172 among starting pitchers. Sears has a 4.24 ERA and a 4.84 xFIP, indicating he’s been somewhat fortunate this season. His performance might be challenged by a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs, especially since Sears is a high-flyball pitcher. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon, the Yankees’ starter, boasts a 4.12 ERA and is ranked #88. His high strikeout rate could exploit the Athletics’ propensity to strike out, as they rank 4th in that category.

Offensively, the Athletics have shown power, ranking 7th in home runs, but struggle with consistency, sitting 24th in batting average. Brent Rooker leads their charge, hitting .302 with 38 home runs. The Yankees, however, bring a more balanced attack, with Aaron Judge posting a .319 average and 53 home runs. Their offense ranks 3rd overall, showcasing depth and power.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees value in the Athletics despite their underdog status. With a projected win probability of 44%, higher than the betting market’s 38%, bettors might find an opportunity backing Oakland. Given the Yankees’ implied team total of 4.54 runs and the Athletics’ projected 3.91 runs, expect a competitive game that could defy expectations.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.7% compared to 39.6% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Aaron Judge has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96-mph to 98.3-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Jose Trevino, the Yankees’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  JP Sears’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.3 mph) below where it was last season (92.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for J.J. Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Oakland Athletics batters collectively have been one of the best in baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 65 away games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)