Weather for Royals vs Braves Game – 9/28/24

Kansas City Royals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals prepare for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Braves, with an 87-71 record, have had a solid season, while the Royals, at 85-75, are experiencing an above-average year. The Braves are coming off a 3-0 shutout victory against the Royals, highlighting their strong form.

On the mound, Atlanta will rely on Reynaldo Lopez, who boasts an impressive 2.03 ERA this season, indicating his capability to keep opposing offenses in check. However, his xFIP of 3.58 suggests some luck has been involved, hinting at possible regression. Lopez is projected to pitch a modest 4.3 innings on average today, which might strain the Braves’ bullpen. Fortunately, Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 9th-best, providing a reliable safety net.

The Royals counter with Seth Lugo, who has been a dependable starter with a 3.03 ERA and a 16-9 record. Despite his xFIP of 3.85 hinting at potential regression, he’s been a workhorse, averaging 5.3 innings per start. Kansas City’s bullpen, ranked 11th, will need to be ready to support Lugo if needed.

Offensively, the Braves have the 4th-best home run tally in MLB, a strength that could be decisive against Lugo. Marcell Ozuna, their standout hitter, has contributed significantly with 39 home runs and a .308 batting average. Meanwhile, the Royals’ offense, ranked 15th overall, relies on Bobby Witt Jr., who has been exceptional with a .332 average and 32 home runs.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees Atlanta as the favorite with a 61% win probability. However, the Royals hold a 39% probability, a 7% increase over betting market expectations. With this discrepancy, there may be value in backing Kansas City. As both teams vie to solidify their season standings, this matchup at Truist Park promises to be an exciting clash.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Adam Frazier is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Kansas City Royals projected offense today (.296 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .307 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Reynaldo Lopez to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Michael Harris II has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 102.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 143 games (+36.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)