Watch the Guardians vs Tigers Game Highlights – July 29th, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 29, 2024, at Comerica Park, fans can expect an intriguing American League Central matchup. The Tigers, with a 52-55 record, are having an average season, while the Guardians, boasting a 63-42 record, are enjoying a great season and are firmly in the playoff hunt.

The Tigers are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins, where they struggled offensively and were shut out. On the other hand, the Guardians edged out the Philadelphia Phillies 4-3 in their last game, continuing their solid form.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Beau Brieske, who is making his first start of the season after 23 bullpen appearances. Brieske has a 4.33 ERA###101, which, while average, is misleading given his 3.12 FIP suggests he’s been unlucky. He projects to pitch only 1.5 innings, which isn’t ideal, and his projections for hits, walks, and strikeouts today are not promising.

The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who has been a reliable arm this season with an 8-4 record and a 3.50 ERA###102. Bibee’s last start on July 24 was solid, going 5 innings and allowing just one earned run. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings today and is expected to limit the Tigers’ offense, which ranks 26th in MLB and has struggled in various key metrics like batting average and stolen bases.

Offensively, the Guardians hold the edge. They rank 14th in overall offense and 8th in stolen bases, with Jose Ramirez leading the charge. Ramirez has been exceptional, with 24 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a .271 batting average. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ best hitter lately has been Colt Keith, who has hit .320 over the last week but lacks the overall firepower to match the Guardians.

The Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 9th, is a bright spot, but they are up against the Guardians’ 2nd-best bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This bullpen matchup further tilts the scales in favor of the Guardians.

Betting odds reflect this disparity, with the Tigers as underdogs at +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a slightly better 45% chance of winning, suggesting some value in the underdog bet. However, the Guardians are rightly favored with a -160 moneyline and a 59% implied win probability, supported by their overall stronger lineup and starting pitcher advantage.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-160)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  In the past two weeks, Josh Naylor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Beau Brieske will “start” for Detroit Tigers in today’s game but will function as an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+9.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 43 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)