Watch the Game Highlights for Royals vs Rockies – July 06, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Kansas City Royals in the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, who are mired in a disappointing season with a 31-57 record, surprised many by winning yesterday’s game 4-2. They managed this victory as significant underdogs (+160 Moneyline), handing the Royals, who have a solid 48-42 record, a rare loss despite the Royals being the favorites (-180 Moneyline).

For today’s game, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber to the mound, while the Royals will counter with Seth Lugo. Gomber, a left-handed pitcher, has struggled mightily this season, sporting a 1-5 record and an ERA of 4.72###101. His advanced metrics, such as being ranked #186 among MLB starting pitchers, suggest he may continue to have a tough time. In his last outing on July 1, Gomber pitched six innings but allowed four earned runs. His projections for today don’t inspire much confidence either, with expected averages of 3.5 earned runs, 6.5 hits, and 3.3 strikeouts over five innings.

On the other hand, Seth Lugo, a right-hander, has been a bright spot for the Royals this season. Lugo boasts an impressive 11-2 record with an ERA of 2.17###102. Although his xFIP of 3.71 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate, Lugo’s recent performance on June 30—where he pitched six scoreless innings with ten strikeouts—demonstrates his capability.

Offensively, the matchup appears fairly even. The Rockies rank 16th in MLB and are bolstered by Brenton Doyle, who has been on fire recently, hitting .417 with a 1.420 OPS over the last week. Kansas City’s offense holds the 15th spot and is led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been exceptional, hitting .478 with a 1.437 OPS over the past week.

Both bullpens are ranked poorly, with the Rockies at 23rd and the Royals at 24th, which could lead to a high-scoring affair. Today’s game total is set at 10.5 runs, reflecting the potential for offensive fireworks.

Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rockies a 46% win probability today, suggesting value on the underdog. The market currently implies a 41% chance for the Rockies, making them an intriguing bet, especially with the public generally hesitant to back a struggling team. This could be an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on the Rockies’ potential to pull off another upset.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Hunter Renfroe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 21.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Austin Gomber is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 90.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 64 games (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Charlie Blackmon has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)