Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
(-120/+100)+155
The Arizona Diamondbacks head to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies in the first game of their series on September 16, 2024. The D-Backs enter this matchup with a strong 83-66 record, while the Rockies struggle with a dismal 57-93 showing this season. Colorado was recently defeated by the Chicago Cubs, losing 6-2, further emphasizing their tough campaign.
In this game, the Rockies will send right-handed pitcher Antonio Senzatela to the mound, who has struggled throughout the season and is currently ranked as the 219th best starting pitcher in MLB. Senzatela has a challenging projection for today, expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs. His performance against a high-powered D-Backs offense could be problematic.
On the other side, Arizona will counter with Merrill Kelly, who has been a reliable presence on their pitching staff. Despite being labeled as an average pitcher this year, Kelly boasts a 4-0 record with a respectable ERA of 4.26. However, his 5.73 xERA indicates he may have benefitted from some luck this season. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs, which makes this matchup intriguing.
Offensively, Arizona’s lineup ranks 1st in MLB, with standout performances from players like Corbin Carroll, who has accumulated 111 runs and 19 home runs this season. The projections suggest that the D-Backs should score around 6.63 runs, while the Rockies are expected to tally about 5.43. This high-scoring potential is supported by a Game Total set at 11.5 runs, indicating a lively matchup ahead.
Overall, the Diamondbacks are favored heavily in this contest, and with their potent offense facing a struggling Rockies pitching staff, it promises to be an uphill battle for Colorado.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-175)The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Eugenio Suarez has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Antonio Senzatela struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Antonio Senzatela to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.4-mph average last season has fallen off to 84.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colorado Rockies hitters as a group grade out 10th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 8.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+155)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 games at home (+7.64 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 106 games (+29.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.05 Units / 23% ROI)