Updated Player Rankings for Yankees vs Mets – July 5th, 2025

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the New York Yankees on July 5, 2025, they find themselves in an interesting position. The Mets currently hold a record of 51-38, showcasing a solid season, while the Yankees trail slightly at 48-40 with an above-average performance. This Interleague matchup is the second game of a series that holds significant implications for both teams.

In their last meeting, the Mets were notably overshadowed, losing the game decisively. With Frankie Montas slated to start for New York, fans might have concerns. Montas has struggled this season, accumulating a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 6.00, which ranks him as the 216th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics—the lower tier of performance. Montas’s ability to control his pitches could be tested against the Yankees, who possess the league’s highest walk rate, as his high walk percentage (10.0 BB%) presents an opportunity for the Yankees to take advantage.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon is expected to take the mound for New York. Rodon has been exceptional this year, sporting a record of 9-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.95, ranking him 64th among pitchers. His reliability is a boon as he projects to pitch around 5.3 innings while giving up 2.9 earned runs—an indicator of his consistent performance.

When analyzing the offensive matchups, the Yankees bring the 2nd best lineup in MLB with a potent mix of power and average, while the Mets rank 10th overall. The projected game total of 9.0 runs indicates expectations for a high-scoring affair, with the Yankees carrying a higher implied team total of 4.85 runs compared to the Mets’ 4.15 runs.

Given the dynamics of both lineups and pitching matchups, the Yankees may have the upper hand, especially with Montas facing their disciplined offense. Despite the Mets’ underdog status, they will look to capitalize on Rodon’s recent performances and turn the tide in their favor.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Carlos Rodon’s four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 9.3% from last year to this one (49.4% to 40.1%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 27.2% seasonal rate to 39.4% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Among all starting pitchers, Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  In comparison to his 89.7-mph average last year, Pete Alonso’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.1 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 73 games (+16.57 Units / 20% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)