Updated Player Rankings for Tigers vs Giants – August 11th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on August 11, 2024, both teams are looking to secure a pivotal win in this Interleague matchup. The Giants currently sit at 61-58, having just defeated the Tigers 3-1 in their last game on August 10, while the Tigers, with a record of 55-63, continue to struggle this season.

The Giants will send Hayden Birdsong to the mound. Although Birdsong ranks as the 140th best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance has been concerning, following a disastrous outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 innings on August 6. However, he has shown potential this season with a 3-1 record and an average ERA of 4.73. The projections suggest he could allow around 2.0 earned runs today, which would be a step in the right direction.

On the other hand, the Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who has struggled mightily this season. Montero’s 5.62 ERA ranks among the worst in the league, and he has a record of 2-5. Despite a somewhat encouraging performance in his last start, where he pitched 6 innings with only 1 earned run, his overall inconsistency makes him a liability against a Giants offense that ranks 14th overall.

With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 2nd best in MLB, they have a significant advantage as they look to build on their recent win. The leading MLB projection system sees the Giants as favorites, projecting them to score 4.76 runs, while the Tigers are expected to struggle with just 3.66 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchups, the Giants appear well-positioned to secure another victory.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Among all starters, Keider Montero’s fastball velocity of 94.6 mph grades out in the 79th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 79-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong will “start” for San Francisco Giants in today’s matchup but will server as an opener and may not go more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Mike Yastrzemski has posted a .202 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Jake Rogers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+8.80 Units / 147% ROI)