Updated Player Rankings for Rockies vs Padres – August 2nd, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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San Diego Padres

On August 2, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Padres sit at 59-51, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies are struggling at 39-70, indicating a tough year on their end.

Randy Vasquez is projected to take the mound for the Padres, and while his record of 3-6 with a 4.82 ERA isn’t impressive, he faces a Rockies lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 3rd in MLB. This could play to Vasquez’s advantage, as he is a low-strikeout pitcher with a 14.8 K% this season. Additionally, the projections suggest that Vasquez may allow 2.4 earned runs on average today, a number that could be more than manageable given the Rockies’ offensive struggles.

On the other hand, Austin Gomber will start for Colorado. With a 2-7 record and an ERA of 4.79, Gomber has also underperformed this season. His low strikeout rate (17.0 K%) could be problematic against a Padres offense that ranks 10th in MLB, showcasing a solid batting average and the best team batting average in the league. The Padres have a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for this matchup, reflecting confidence in their lineup to capitalize on Gomber’s vulnerabilities.

Overall, with a well-ranked bullpen (2nd best in MLB) backing Vasquez and a potent offense ready to exploit Gomber, the Padres are positioned as significant favorites in this contest.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Gomber to throw 85 pitches in today’s game (13th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Elias Diaz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jake Cave hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Randy Vasquez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.83 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.94 — a 1.11 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Colorado Rockies don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth is certain to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games at home (+12.55 Units / 50% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 away games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
  Jake Cave has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+11.00 Units / 183% ROI)