Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets
(-115/-105)-165
As the Cincinnati Reds visit Citi Field on September 6, 2024, they face a New York Mets team that is enjoying an above-average season with a record of 76-64. The Reds, on the other hand, sit at 68-73, struggling to find their footing. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and it carries a bit of intrigue as both teams look to establish momentum.
The Mets are projected to send Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea has been solid this season, boasting an 11-5 record and a commendable ERA of 3.35. However, his 4.13 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, which plays into the Mets’ favor against a Reds offense that ranks 16th overall but is struggling with a 27th place batting average.
Fernando Cruz will take the hill for Cincinnati. Despite being ranked 83rd among starting pitchers, Cruz’s 4.99 ERA indicates he has had a tough season. His projections suggest he will pitch only 3.5 innings, allowing 1.7 earned runs, which is not ideal against a Mets offense that ranks 10th in the league and has been particularly powerful, sitting 4th in home runs.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are favored to win, with a projected average of 4.45 runs against the Reds’ 3.96 runs. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested matchup. With the Mets being significant betting favorites at a moneyline of -175, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their strong season against the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)Jake Fraley is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Cincinnati Reds – 2H MoneylineThe Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)J.D. Martinez’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 93.4-mph average last season has fallen off to 91-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 92 games (+15.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-145)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 116 games (+9.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-600)Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 53% ROI)