Updated Player Rankings for Red Sox vs Orioles – August 15th, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on August 15, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Orioles enter the game with a strong record of 71-50, while the Red Sox sit at 63-56, showcasing a competitive season for both teams. The Orioles are coming off a solid victory against the Washington Nationals, winning 4-1, while the Red Sox suffered a close loss to the Texas Rangers, falling 9-7.

Baltimore is projected to start Zach Eflin, who has had a strong season, ranking as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Eflin boasts a 3.83 ERA and a 3.30 xERA, indicating he may have been unlucky and is likely to improve. He pitched exceptionally well in his last outing, going 7 innings with no earned runs, 7 strikeouts, and only 4 hits. His low strikeout rate, however, may be tested against a high-strikeout Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in the league.

On the other hand, Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the mound. Pivetta has had an average season, recording a 4.44 ERA. He struggles with fly balls, which could play into the hands of the powerful Orioles lineup that leads MLB with 157 home runs this season. The projections suggest that the Orioles should score around 4.78 runs in this game, while the Red Sox are expected to score approximately 4.32 runs.

With the Orioles’ offense ranking 1st in home runs and 3rd overall, they appear poised to capitalize on Pivetta’s weaknesses. The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Orioles should be favored in this matchup, reinforcing their strong position as they look to maintain their momentum.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Wilyer Abreu has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #6 club in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Zach Eflin’s curveball percentage has fallen by 8.6% from last year to this one (26.5% to 17.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Boston (#1-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 79 games (+20.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)