Updated Player Rankings for Red Sox vs Mariners – June 18th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox clash on June 18, 2025, at T-Mobile Park, the stakes are set for an intriguing matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500 this season, with the Mariners at 37-35 and the Red Sox slightly ahead at 38-37. It’s worth noting that Boston’s Garrett Crochet recently threw a complete game shutout, showcasing his impressive form as he takes the mound against Seattle’s Luis Castillo.

Castillo, who is ranked 86th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been consistent but has a win/loss record of 4-4 and a solid ERA of 3.29. However, his 4.24 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky this season. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which looks favorable against a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently.

Conversely, Crochet is having a breakout season, holding an impressive 2.24 ERA and ranking 6th in the league for starting pitchers. He projects to pitch around 5.9 innings with 7.6 strikeouts, making him a tough opponent for a Mariners offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts. Seattle’s offense, while ranked 11th overall, struggles with a low batting average, sitting at 19th.

Despite the Mariners’ recent average play and the close odds—Seattle at +105 and Boston at -125—there’s a narrative to consider. The Mariners have the potential to rally behind Castillo’s strong performances, especially if their best hitter continues to thrive, having recently posted a .400 batting average. With a projected total of just 7.0 runs, today’s game could very well hinge on Castillo’s ability to neutralize the Red Sox lineup while minimizing walks and hits.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.6 mph this season (95.5 mph) below where it was last season (97.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox bats jointly have been among the best in baseball this year () in regard to their 90.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball hitters have a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Luis Castillo and his 35% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot today being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Mitch Garver is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)