Tampa Bay Rays
Oakland Athletics
(+100/-120)+100
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 19, 2024, the stakes are low for both teams in terms of playoff contention. The Athletics currently sit at 53-71, struggling through a difficult season, while the Rays hold a record of 62-61, marking them as an average team in the American League.
In their last game, the Athletics faced the San Francisco Giants and fell short with a score of 4-2, continuing their streak of disappointing performances. Meanwhile, the Rays edged past the Arizona Diamondbacks with a narrow 8-7 victory. This matchup marks the first game of the series between these two teams, and both squads are looking to gain some momentum.
On the mound, Oakland will start Joe Boyle, who has had a rough season with a 2-5 record and a troubling ERA of 7.39. His last outing was uneventful, as he pitched just 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some positive regression. The projections indicate that he could allow an average of just 2.1 earned runs today, but his propensity to give up hits and walks remains a concern.
Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who has been more effective this season, posting a 3.49 ERA and a solid strikeout rate of 28.5%. However, he was roughed up in his last start, surrendering 6 earned runs over 4 innings. The projections show that he could allow around 2.3 earned runs today, giving him an edge against an Athletics offense that ranks 18th overall in MLB.
While both teams have their weaknesses, the Athletics’ struggles with strikeouts—ranking 2nd in MLB—could play into Bradley’s strengths as a high-strikeout pitcher. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these pitchers perform, especially given the close odds in this matchup. The Athletics have a low implied team total of 3.62 runs, while the Rays sit at an average of 3.88 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Taj Bradley has used his change-up 14.3% more often this season (28.2%) than he did last year (13.9%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Utilizing Statcast metrics, Taylor Walls grades out in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .157.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Today, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.7% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Joe Boyle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Joe Boyle’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (98.5 mph) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (96.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Abraham Toro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+14.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROI)