Updated Player Rankings for Rangers vs Astros – July 12th, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

A key matchup in the American League West is set for July 12, 2025, as the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park. The Astros currently lead with a record of 55-39, cruising through the season, while the Rangers find themselves at 47-48, battling to stay relevant in a tight race. In their last meeting, the Astros secured a win, which adds to their momentum heading into this second game of the series.

Pitching will be crucial, with Framber Valdez projected to take the mound for Houston. Valdez ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB this season, showcasing a stellar 10-4 record and a 2.90 ERA. Although his peripheral stats suggest he may have been slightly fortunate, he projects to pitch 6.4 innings today, allowing around 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters. His strikeout ability and low walks (1.8 projected today) could exploit the Rangers’ batting struggles, especially against a low-walk pitcher like him.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom will start for Texas. The former ace holds a 9-2 record and an outstanding 2.29 ERA, ranking 12th among starting pitchers. However, his projections indicate a similar trend of overperformance, as he’s expected to pitch about 5.7 innings with 2.0 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers are elite, but Valdez may have the edge given the current form of the Astros.

Houston’s offense, ranking 8th overall and boasting the best team batting average in MLB, will look to capitalize on Texas’s 25th-ranked offense. The betting markets reflect this by favoring the Astros with a moneyline of -125, indicating they are viewed as the closer team to win, yet their implied team total of 3.37 runs suggests a potential underwhelming display. In contrast, the Rangers, with a moneyline of +105, could be poised for an upset if their lineup can find a way to break through the elite pitching.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jacob deGrom’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Framber Valdez.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Because groundball batters have a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 58.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this outing facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Christian Walker has paced 0 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)