Updated Player Rankings for Rangers vs Astros – July 12th, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

The Texas Rangers visit Minute Maid Park to face off against the Houston Astros on July 12, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Astros currently sit at 55-39, showcasing a great season thus far, while the Rangers are struggling at 47-48, marking an average performance. In their last matchup, the Rangers bested the Astros with a score of 7-3, a result that reflected the contrasting trajectories of these two teams.

Houston’s Framber Valdez is projected to start, entering this game with a solid 10-4 record and an impressive 2.90 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have benefited from some luck this season. Valdez has been effective, averaging 6.3 innings pitched and allowing just 2.3 earned runs per start. Yet, his projection of allowing 5.6 hits and 1.8 walks raises concerns about his consistency.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom is taking the mound for Texas, holding a strong 9-2 record and a remarkable 2.29 ERA. Despite a slightly higher xFIP of 3.28, deGrom has been dominant and is expected to deliver a solid performance, averaging 5.7 innings with an elite projection of just 1.9 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Astros rank 1st in team batting average but sit 13th in home runs, while the Rangers are struggling with a 25th ranking in overall offense. The Astros’ bullpen is also a standout, ranked 2nd in MLB, which could be critical in a low-scoring game projected at 6.5 runs.

With the Astros’ offense igniting at the right moment and their elite pitcher on the mound, they may exceed their low implied team total of 3.33 runs. As the betting markets reflect a close contest, Houston appears poised to bounce back and capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jacob deGrom’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Josh Smith is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because groundball batters have a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 58.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this outing facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Christian Walker has paced 0 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 47% ROI)