Updated Player Rankings for Padres vs Nationals – July 24th, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres face off in the second game of their series on July 24, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals are enduring a below-average season with a 47-54 record, while the Padres are hovering around .500 at 53-50. The Padres took the first game of the series yesterday with a decisive 4-0 victory, underscoring the Nationals’ offensive woes.

On the mound, the Nationals are set to start left-hander Mitchell Parker, who holds a 5-5 record and a respectable 3.90 ERA through 17 starts this season. However, Parker has struggled recently, getting shelled for five earned runs in just one inning during his last outing on July 13. Parker’s metrics suggest he might continue to struggle, as he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.9 innings, with a low strikeout projection of 3.2 batters.

The Padres counter with right-hander Matt Waldron, who has a 5-9 record and a 3.59 ERA over 20 starts. Waldron had a strong performance in his last start on July 19, pitching six innings of one-run ball. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate this year. Waldron projects to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.6 innings, with a similarly low strikeout projection of 3.6 batters.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 26th in MLB, with particular struggles in power, ranking 29th in home runs. Their one bright spot is their ability to steal bases, ranking 3rd in this category. CJ Abrams has been their standout hitter, boasting a .264 average and 15 home runs. On the other hand, the Padres boast the 11th-best offense, with Jurickson Profar leading the charge with a .299 average and 15 home runs.

Both bullpens present a stark contrast. The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 29th, while the Padres’ relievers are 9th in the league, providing San Diego with a significant late-game advantage.

The betting markets and projections both view this game as a tight contest, with the Nationals and Padres each having a 50% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Padres with a 51% win probability. Given their superior bullpen and more consistent offensive performance, the Padres appear to have a slight edge in this matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Matt Waldron must realize this, because he has used his non-fastballs a lot this year: 66.3% of the time, ranking in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.6-mph EV last year has lowered to 87.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2191-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 20th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Despite posting a .345 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes CJ Abrams has had some very good luck given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 away games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)