Updated Player Rankings for Orioles vs Royals – April 5th, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Kansas City Royals

On April 5, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. Currently, the Royals sit at 3-4 and are looking to recover from a rough start to the season, while the Orioles are struggling even more at 3-5. Yesterday, the Royals fell short in a close game against the Orioles, and both teams will be eager to secure a win in this second game of their series.

Starting for the Royals is Michael Wacha, who has an ERA of 2.25 this season, suggesting he has been effective despite a 0-1 record in his lone start. However, his 7.28 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky and could face challenges moving forward. The projections suggest Wacha will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters, which is below-average.

Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound for the Orioles, also with a 0-1 record this season. His 4.50 ERA is average, but his 6.21 xERA suggests he may not maintain that level of performance. The projections indicate he will pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out just 3.1 batters, which represents a concern for Baltimore.

Offensively, the Royals are struggling with a team ranking of 41st in MLB, while the Orioles rank 11th. Despite the Royals’ poor offense, they will face a pitcher in Sugano who has shown signs of inconsistency.

With an average game total of 8.0 runs and the Royals favored with a moneyline of -120, bettors might see value in Kansas City. However, considering the Royals’ offensive woes, the projections could lead to a tight contest, making both teams competitive in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  In his previous outing, Tomoyoki Sugano wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1100/-5000)
  Jackson Holliday’s footspeed has declined this year. His 29.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.79 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will be challenged by the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 121 games (+16.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.30 Units / 44% ROI)