Updated Player Rankings for Marlins vs Orioles – July 13th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 13, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Miami Marlins in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are currently sitting at a lackluster 43-51, indicating a below-average season for both. In their last encounter, the Marlins narrowly edged out the Orioles, adding to the tension as they meet for the third game of the series.

The pitching matchup features Brandon Young for the Orioles and Eury Perez for the Marlins. Young, ranked 129th among starting pitchers in MLB Power Rankings, has struggled this season with an 0-3 record and a disappointing 6.14 ERA. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Young is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, but his tendency to allow 5.5 hits and 2.7 earned runs complicates matters for Baltimore.

On the other hand, Eury Perez is having a solid season, ranked 47th in MLB. His 4.00 ERA and 2.61 xERA indicate he has been performing well, despite a challenging start to the season. Perez’s projection of 4.6 innings is concerning, but he brings a higher strikeout rate compared to Young, which could give him an edge in this matchup.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 19th overall and 22nd in batting average, while the Marlins sit at 22nd overall but boast a better 12th place in batting average. The projections favor the Orioles with an implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Marlins’ 4.34. Given the close odds—Baltimore at -125 and Miami at +105—this game is expected to be tightly contested, with the Orioles looking to leverage their home advantage to turn the season around.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Batters such as Dane Myers with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Young who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Tyler O’Neill is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles bats as a unit rank among the elite in the majors this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+16.43 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-185/+145)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)