Updated Player Rankings for Dodgers vs Astros – July 26th, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 26, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. This Interleague matchup features two teams with strong seasons thus far. The Astros, sitting at 53-49, are having an above-average year, while the Dodgers, at 62-42, boast a great season. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this series opener particularly significant.

The Astros will send left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez to the mound. Valdez, who ranks as the 23rd-best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, has a solid 8-5 record with a 3.63 ERA###101. Valdez’s high ground-ball rate (62%) could be a key factor against the power-heavy Dodgers lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs. His ability to keep the ball on the ground could neutralize the Dodgers’ home run threat.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with right-hander Gavin Stone. Stone has had a strong season with a 9-3 record and an impressive 3.19 ERA###102. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some luck and might be due for regression. Stone’s low strikeout rate (18.8%) could be a disadvantage against the Astros, who rank 3rd in MLB in least strikeouts. Additionally, the Astros’ offense, ranked 10th overall and 2nd in team batting average, could exploit Stone’s tendency to allow hits.

Offensively, the Astros have been led by Yordan Alvarez over the past week, who has been red-hot with a .409 batting average and a 1.277 OPS. The Dodgers’ Gavin Lux has been equally impressive, hitting .450 with a 1.426 OPS, including 2 home runs and 5 RBIs over his last seven games.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Dodgers ranked 6th and the Astros 10th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is expected to be tightly contested, with the betting markets giving the Astros a slight edge with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability. The Dodgers’ moneyline is set at +110, indicating a 46% win probability. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, fans can expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.4-mph to 100.5-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Framber Valdez has added a slider to his repertoire this year and has thrown it 5.2% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year with his .233 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+13.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+23.95 Units / 25% ROI)