Understand the Game Breakdown: Rays vs Guardians Head-to-Head Insights September 12th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Guardians, with a solid record of 84-62, are in the thick of the playoff race, showcasing a season filled with promise. Meanwhile, the Rays, struggling at 71-75, are mired in mediocrity and looking to salvage their campaign.

In their last outing, the Guardians faced the Chicago White Sox, securing a 6-4 victory, while the Rays lost a tight contest against the Philadelphia Phillies, falling 3-2. This matchup marks the first in a series between these two clubs, making it a critical opportunity for both teams to set a tone.

On the mound, the Guardians will send Gavin Williams to the hill. Despite his Win/Loss record of 3-8 and an ERA of 5.25 this season, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky. His 4.14 xFIP indicates potential improvements ahead. In contrast, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who boasts a more favorable 8-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.66. However, Pepiot’s performance has also been buoyed by some good fortune, as reflected in his xFIP of 4.18.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 17th in MLB, while the Rays are significantly lower at 26th. Cleveland’s best hitter, José Ramírez, is having a standout season, contributing to the team’s overall success. In contrast, the Rays have struggled to find consistent offensive production, which is reflected in their low batting average and home run totals.

With the Guardians favored at a moneyline of -145 and projected to score around 4.27 runs, while the Rays are expected to manage just 4.03 runs, this matchup presents a classic case of a solid team going against one looking to find its footing. The Guardians’ strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, adds another layer of advantage as they look to build on their recent success.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 8 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Ryan Pepiot faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jonathan Aranda has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 78 of their last 132 games (+20.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+17.00 Units / 425% ROI)