Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Yankees Head-to-Head Insights September 27th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, boasting an impressive 93-66 record, are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 27, 2024. This interleague matchup sees the Yankees having already secured their spot in the postseason, while the Pirates, at 74-85, are out of playoff contention. The Yankees are riding high off a dominant 10-1 victory against the Orioles, showcasing their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Pirates are looking to bounce back after a 5-2 loss to the Brewers.

On the mound, the Yankees will start Carlos Rodon, a lefty who has been solid with a 3.98 ERA this season. Rodon is coming off a strong performance, pitching six scoreless innings in his last outing. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks 28th in offensive production, which could play into Rodon’s strengths as a high-strikeout, high-flyball pitcher. The Pirates’ tendency to strike out (4th most in MLB) and lack of power (26th in home runs) might give Rodon the edge he needs.

The Pirates will counter with Jared Jones, a right-hander who holds a 4.14 ERA. Despite being ranked 73rd among starting pitchers, Jones has struggled lately, allowing six earned runs in his previous start. Facing the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which leads MLB in home runs, could spell trouble for Jones, especially given his high-flyball tendencies.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a significant advantage with a 65% win probability, while the Pirates stand at 35%. With Aaron Judge leading the charge for New York, and the Yankees offense ranked 3rd overall, they are projected to score 5.15 runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates are projected to manage just 3.95 runs against the Yankees’ average bullpen. This game sets up as a favorable matchup for the Yankees to continue their winning ways.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 81 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Connor Joe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Connor Joe’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.9-mph average last year has lowered to 85.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats collectively place 9th- in MLB for power this year when using their 30.1% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or harder.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has used his non-fastballs 11.2% more often this season (50.8%) than he did last season (39.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Oswaldo Cabrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  When it comes to his home runs, Oswaldo Cabrera has been very fortunate this year. His 15.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 106 games (+15.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-185)
  Austin Wells has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 64% ROI)