Understand the Game Breakdown: Guardians vs Phillies Head-to-Head Insights July 28th, 2024)

Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians gear up for the third game of their series on July 28, 2024, both teams are eyeing a strong finish to their impressive seasons. The Phillies, with a 65-39 record, are having a stellar campaign, while the Guardians are right behind with a solid 62-42 record. Yesterday, the Phillies dominated with an 8-0 shutout, demonstrating their offensive prowess and strong bullpen performance.

In today’s matchup at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies will trot out Kolby Allard, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled mightily this season. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Allard is the 316th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. His projections don’t inspire confidence either; he is expected to pitch just 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.2 walks. Allard’s last start on July 16 was particularly rough, as he lasted only two innings, giving up four earned runs.

The Guardians will counter with Joey Cantillo, another left-handed pitcher, who fares better but is still considered average by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cantillo is projected to pitch 4.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 4.7 hits, and 1.9 walks. His strikeout rate of 4.5 batters is below average, which could spell trouble against a potent Phillies lineup.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 5th best offense in MLB, ranking 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Bryce Harper has been their standout hitter this season, posting a .288 batting average and a .949 OPS. Nick Castellanos has been hot recently, with a .348 batting average and 1.087 OPS over the last week.

The Guardians, while not as explosive, have a respectable 14th-ranked offense. Jose Ramirez leads the charge with a .270 batting average and a .833 OPS. He has also been the team’s best hitter over the past week, contributing a .778 OPS.

Both teams feature top-tier bullpens, with the Phillies ranked 3rd and the Guardians 2nd in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is expected to be a close one, with the Phillies currently having a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Guardians sit at +100, implying a 48% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Guardians with a 51% win probability, projecting them to score an average of 5.30 runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Philadelphia’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Bo Naylor, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  In the past 14 days, Alec Bohm’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kolby Allard – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Projected catcher Garrett Stubbs profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 88 games (+17.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)