Understand the Game Breakdown: Dodgers vs Nationals Head-to-Head Insights April 7th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Washington Nationals

On April 7, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Nationals Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Nationals are struggling this season with a record of 3-6, currently holding the 33rd-best offense in MLB according to advanced metrics. In contrast, the Dodgers have jumped out to a strong start with a 9-2 record, featuring a potent offense that ranks 3rd in home runs but just 35th in batting average.

In their last outing, the Dodgers continued their dominant stretch but not without challenges from a surprisingly resilient Nationals lineup. The Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, who, despite his 0-1 record, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, he has been unlucky—his xFIP of 1.78 suggests he may start to see better results as the season progresses. Gore’s high flyball rate (39% this year) could pose problems against a power-heavy Dodgers offense that thrives on turning those opportunities into home runs.

Dustin May, who takes the mound for Los Angeles, has been equally effective with a perfect 0.00 ERA over his single start this season. However, his xFIP of 2.96 indicates he may be benefiting from some favorable circumstances. May’s high strikeout rate (33.3% this year) aligns well against a Nationals offense that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB, giving him a favorable matchup.

With the betting lines indicating a +160 moneyline for the Nationals and -185 for the Dodgers, the projections imply the Nationals will struggle to reach their team total of 3.43 runs. However, given the volatility in turnovers between pitching and batting, coupled with home-field advantage, the Nationals could surprise and turn the narrative around in this opening game of the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Due to his huge platoon split, Dustin May will be in a tough position facing 6 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last season’s 95.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-175)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order ranks as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Dustin May.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 105 games (+27.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)