Understand the Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Phillies Head-to-Head Insights September 24th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to host the Chicago Cubs on September 24, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, both teams are navigating different trajectories this season. The Phillies, boasting a robust 93-64 record, are having a stellar season, sitting comfortably in the playoff picture with the 4th-best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cubs, at 80-77, are experiencing an average season with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Phillies showcased their offensive prowess, emphasizing their superiority over the Cubs. Nick Castellanos has been a standout performer for Philadelphia, hitting a scorching .385 with two homers and an OPS of 1.082 over the last week. On the flip side, Mike Tauchman has been a bright spot for the Cubs, batting .429 with a 1.524 OPS in his last five games.

The pitching duel features Tanner Banks for the Phillies and Justin Steele for the Cubs, both left-handers. Banks, primarily a bullpen arm with just one start this year, has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 3.25 FIP being significantly lower than his 3.78 ERA. Despite his limited projected innings today, Banks could benefit from some positive regression. Steele, ranked as the 15th-best starting pitcher in MLB, has been solid with a 3.03 ERA, though his 3.62 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate.

The Phillies’ bullpen, ranked 11th in Power Rankings, holds an edge over the Cubs’ 21st-ranked bullpen, which could be pivotal in a close game. Betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 54% win probability, projecting them to score 4.75 runs compared to the Phillies’ 4.13. This matchup promises to be a crucial one for the Cubs as they fight to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Justin Steele to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 72 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .278 BA is inflated compared to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have excelled when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 2nd-best in the league.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Tanner Banks – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  The Chicago Cubs have 9 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Banks in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.5% up to 31.3%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a group rank 22nd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
  Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)