Understand the Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Phillies Head-to-Head Insights September 24th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago Cubs on September 24, 2024, for the second game of their series at Citizens Bank Park. With the Phillies boasting a strong record of 93-64 and the Cubs sitting at 80-77, the Phillies have already clinched a playoff spot, while the Cubs are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Phillies emerged victorious, and they aim to continue their momentum. Starting for Philadelphia is Tanner Banks, a lefty who has primarily worked out of the bullpen this year. Despite being ranked as the #153 starting pitcher in MLB, Banks has shown some promise with a 3.78 ERA and an underlying 3.25 FIP suggesting he’s been slightly unlucky. However, his projection of just 2.6 innings pitched today raises questions about the Phillies’ reliance on their bullpen, which is ranked 10th best in MLB power rankings.

Opposing Banks is Chicago’s Justin Steele, an elite left-handed starter ranked 15th among MLB pitchers. Steele brings a stellar 3.03 ERA to the mound, though his 3.62 xFIP hints he might have benefited from some luck this season. The Cubs will look to Steele to stifle a potent Phillies offense, which ranks 5th overall and 4th in team batting average this season.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, show the Phillies with a slight edge, giving them a 52% win probability compared to the Cubs’ 48%. This contradicts betting markets, which favor the Cubs. With the Phillies’ offense firing on all cylinders, led by Nick Castellanos who boasts a .385 average and 1.082 OPS over the last week, there may be value in siding with Philadelphia in this closely contested National League showdown.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Justin Steele to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 72 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.219) may lead us to conclude that Michael Busch has had positive variance on his side this year with his .252 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Busch).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Tanner Banks – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The Chicago Cubs have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Banks in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under Total Bases
  Bryce Harper has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 10.5% seasonal rate to 21.9% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+10.75 Units / 85% ROI)