Understand the Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Athletics Head-to-Head Insights April 1st, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Athletics

On April 1, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Chicago Cubs at Sutter Health Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Athletics sitting at 2-3 and the Cubs at 3-4. In their previous matchup on March 31, the Athletics suffered a demoralizing 18-3 defeat, while the Cubs enjoyed a commanding win by the same score.

The Athletics are projected to start Luis Severino, who has had a mixed performance this season. Although his ERA stands at an impressive 0.00, his xFIP of 4.55 suggests that he might not be able to maintain this level of success. Severino’s high walk rate (16.0 BB%) may become problematic against the Cubs, who lead MLB in walks. This could provide Chicago’s offense, ranked 13th overall, with ample opportunities to capitalize.

Justin Steele, the Cubs’ projected starter, is coming off a less-than-stellar outing with an ERA of 8.00 this season. Despite his challenges, his xFIP of 3.97 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and could turn things around. Facing an Athletics offense ranked 21st in MLB, Steele may find this matchup favorable to regain his form.

Both teams have shown flashes of power, with the Athletics ranking 8th in home runs this season. However, their overall offensive struggles, particularly with a batting average of .218, could hinder their chances. The Cubs, while not elite in power, are better positioned for this game, especially considering their recent momentum.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Athletics’ moneyline at +115, sportsbooks expect a competitive matchup. The projections suggest that the Cubs may have the edge in this contest, potentially making them an intriguing option for bettors.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Justin Steele is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #7 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  Luis Severino’s high usage percentage of his fastball (60.3% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Tyler Soderstrom has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics bats as a group have been one of the best in MLB since the start of last season (7th-) in regard to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+13.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)