Understand the Game Breakdown: Cardinals vs Marlins Head-to-Head Insights August 18th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the St. Louis Cardinals for the first game of their series on August 18, 2025, as both teams look to gain ground in a tightly contested National League landscape. The Marlins currently sit at 59-65, struggling through a below-average season, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 61-64, showcasing an average performance thus far. Both teams come off contrasting results in their previous games; the Marlins won 5-3, while the Cardinals fell 8-4.

Projected starters Eury Perez for the Marlins and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals present an intriguing matchup. Perez, ranked as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has a solid 3.58 ERA and a 5-3 record this season. His last outing was uneventful, allowing four earned runs in five innings, but he projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs today, which would be a positive sign for Miami. His high flyball rate (49 FB%) could work in his favor against a Cardinals lineup lacking power, ranking 25th in home runs this season.

On the other hand, Liberatore has struggled with a 4.08 ERA and a disappointing 6-10 record. His projections suggest he’ll allow around 2.7 earned runs, but he has been less effective overall, especially with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.4 batters per game.

The Marlins’ offense ranks 17th overall but boasts a 9th place standing in batting average, indicating potential for runs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, despite their average batting average ranking of 15th, sit 25th in home runs, which could hinder their scoring efforts. With Miami’s bullpen rated 22nd and St. Louis’s at 10th, late-game scenarios may favor the Cardinals if the game remains close.

As betting markets indicate a close matchup, with the Marlins favored at -135, the projections suggest Miami should outperform their average implied team total of 3.97 runs today. This game could be pivotal in determining the direction of both teams as they navigate the latter part of the season.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Matthew Liberatore projects to allow an average of 1.5 walks in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #21 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Eury Perez’s high usage rate of his fastball (54.5% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.340) provides evidence that Otto Lopez has been unlucky this year with his .294 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+9.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Dane Myers has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+6.00 Units / 150% ROI)