Understand the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Red Sox Head-to-Head Insights June 27th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27, 2025, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this pivotal American League East matchup. The Red Sox currently sit at 40-42, facing challenges this season, while the Blue Jays hold a more favorable record of 43-37, indicating an above-average performance thus far. In their previous game, the Blue Jays fell short against the Red Sox, who have been building some momentum.

On the mound, Brayan Bello is projected to start for Boston. With a solid ERA of 3.31, Bello ranks as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB and has shown promise, despite a 4.21 xFIP indicating he may have had some luck this season. His average projection of allowing 2.6 earned runs and pitching 5.9 innings is respectable, but his tendency to allow 6.2 hits and 1.7 walks is concerning. Facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in batting average, Bello will need to be on his game.

Jose Berrios, starting for Toronto, has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. His ERA sits at 3.51, but like Bello, his 4.26 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn. With an average projection of 3.0 earned runs allowed and a below-average strikeout rate of 4.7, Berrios will need to limit hard contact against a Red Sox lineup that boasts the 10th best offense in MLB.

The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting anticipation for a competitive matchup. With both teams’ offensive power and the projections suggesting a close contest, this game could be a turning point for the Red Sox as they seek to stabilize their season against a Blue Jays team looking to maintain their standing.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Jose Berrios is projected to average 16.7 outs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  In comparison to his 86.6-mph average last year, Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 90.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox projected offense grades out as the 3rd-worst on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.0 (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 77% ROI)