Understand the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Red Sox Head-to-Head Insights June 27th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on June 27, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting recent performances. The Red Sox are currently sitting at 40-42, having lost their last game against the Blue Jays on June 25 by a score of 5-2, while the Blue Jays boast a better record of 43-37 and recently delivered a decisive 6-0 victory. With this being the first game of their series, both clubs will be eager to seize momentum.

The Red Sox will send Brayan Bello to the mound, who has shown himself to be an above-average pitcher with a solid ERA of 3.31, although his xFIP of 4.20 suggests he may have enjoyed some fortune this season. Bello’s last start on June 21 was impressive, as he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out six batters. However, his low strikeout rate (18.0 K%) could pose a challenge against the Blue Jays, who rank as the lowest in baseball for strikeouts.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios, who has had a tough season and ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Despite his ERA of 3.51, Berrios has struggled with consistency. His recent performance was solid, pitching eight innings without allowing an earned run, but he has given up 3.0 earned runs on average in projections for this game.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB while the Blue Jays sit at 12th. However, the Red Sox’s offensive metrics indicate that they have the potential to score, especially with an implied team total of 4.45 runs for this matchup. Given that the Red Sox have a strong home-field advantage and are projected to perform better than their recent record suggests, they may offer value against the Blue Jays in this close matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Jose Berrios is projected to average 17 outs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In comparison to his 86.6-mph average last year, Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 90.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.307 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .318 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+9.10 Units / 91% ROI)