Los Angeles Angels
Athletics
(-110/-110)-135
As the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels prepare for the first game of their series on May 19, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of disappointing seasons. The Athletics, currently sitting at 22-25, are slightly faring better than the Angels, who have a record of 20-25. Interestingly, the Athletics are coming off a narrow 3-2 loss against the Angels, while the Angels won their previous match 6-4, potentially providing them with the momentum heading into this matchup.
On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start J.T. Ginn, who has shown some resilience despite a 1-1 record and a 4.61 ERA this season. While his performance has been average, advanced stats show he has likely been unlucky, suggesting he could improve. Ginn’s ability to induce ground balls (59% this year) might benefit him against the Angels’ powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB for home runs with 65 this season.
Conversely, the Angels will counter with Jose Soriano, who has been solid with a stellar 3.46 ERA but has a high xERA of 4.33. While Soriano has been effective in limiting runs, his recent form has suggested potential regression ahead. The Athletics’ offense, ranking 12th with a decent batting average, has the capability to challenge Soriano, especially given that they rank 9th in home runs.
With the Athletics boasting a moneyline of -135, betting markets indicate a close contest, and their strong implied team total of 5.02 runs reflects a belief that they could capitalize on Soriano’s weaknesses. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams, as they seek to find some consistency moving forward.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (55.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #9 HR venue in the league — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Logan O’Hoppe is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Today, Zach Neto is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.6% rate (93rd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Given his large platoon split, J.T. Ginn should be in good shape matching up with 6 hitters in the projected lineup who share his hand in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Tyler Soderstrom has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph dropping to 87.6-mph over the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Athletics have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 17.3° angle is among the highest in the league this year (#3 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.17 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 102% ROI)