Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
(+100/-120)-290
On June 14, 2025, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Chicago White Sox in the second game of a series at Globe Life Field. After the Rangers clinched a 3-1 victory over the White Sox the previous day, the stakes are high as they look to maintain momentum. Texas, with a record of 34-36, has had an average season, while Chicago has struggled significantly, sitting at 23-47 with one of the worst records in MLB.
The Rangers are set to start Jacob deGrom, ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. DeGrom has been exceptional with a 6-2 record and a remarkable 2.12 ERA this season. However, his 3.34 xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. In his last start on June 7, he delivered a standout performance, going 7 innings without allowing any earned runs, striking out 8 batters.
On the other hand, the White Sox will counter with Mike Vasil, who has struggled with a 3-2 record and a solid but overvalued 2.18 ERA, as indicated by his high 5.08 xFIP. Vasil has had a rough few outings, including a short 3-inning stint during his last start where he allowed 2 earned runs.
The matchup presents a classic scenario with a dominant pitcher facing a weak offense. The White Sox rank dead last in MLB for both overall offensive performance and team batting average. Meanwhile, the Rangers, though not great either, rank somewhat better in areas like home runs and stolen bases, which could work in their favor.
With the Rangers positioned as significant favorites at -305 on the moneyline, their chance of victory is supported by their better overall form and the struggles faced by Chicago. The game’s total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a pitching-dominated contest, particularly with deGrom on the mound.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+235)In his previous start, Mike Vasil was in good form and allowed 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)From last season to this one, Josh Rojas’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 92.2 mph to 85.1 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-200/+155)Tallying 17.6 outs per GS this year on average, Jacob deGrom places in the 86th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Batters such as Marcus Semien with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Vasil who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 67 games (+19.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)