Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
(-110/-110)-110
As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on August 18, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, the stakes are high for both teams, particularly for the Reds, who are trying to recover from a disappointing 13-1 loss to the Royals yesterday. The Reds currently sit at 60-63, an average season by their standards, while the Royals are having a strong campaign at 68-55.
In this Interleague matchup, the Reds will send Andrew Abbott to the mound, a left-handed pitcher ranked 130th among MLB starters, indicating below-average performance this season. Abbott’s recent outings have been a mixed bag, with his last start on August 12 showcasing his potential as he went seven innings, allowing just one earned run. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests he may have been lucky, and projections indicate he could struggle against a Royals offense that ranks 12th in the league.
On the other side, the Royals will counter with Brady Singer, a right-handed pitcher ranked 67th among starters. Singer has had his ups and downs, notably allowing six earned runs in his last outing, but with a solid ERA of 3.32 this season, he poses a legitimate threat. The projections favor the Royals, who are expected to score 5.45 runs on average in this game, compared to the Reds’ projected 4.80 runs.
Despite the Reds’ struggles this season, they do boast a solid offense ranked 17th overall, with Elly De La Cruz leading the charge. However, the projections suggest that the Reds will need to capitalize on their opportunities and minimize walks against a Royals team that has shown they can hit for power and average. With both teams looking to bounce back, this matchup promises to be a closely contested affair, especially given the high Game Total of 9.0 runs.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andrew Abbott.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Kansas City Royals batters jointly have been among the best in baseball this year (4th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Jake Fraley is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+10.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+19.50 Units / 244% ROI)