Uncover the Game Forecast: Royals vs Red Sox Head-to-Head Analysis 8/05/25

Kansas City Royals

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Kansas City Royals on August 5, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 63-51, are enjoying a solid season and rank 5th in MLB in offensive production. In contrast, the Royals are struggling with a 56-57 record, placing them 26th in offensive rankings. In their previous outing, the Red Sox secured a victory against the Royals, further asserting their dominance in this series.

Garrett Crochet is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox. He has been exceptional this season, boasting a 12-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.23, making him one of the elite pitchers in the league, ranked 4th overall. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today, as he is a high-strikeout pitcher up against a Royals offense that has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB. Additionally, Crochet’s tendency to generate ground balls could mitigate the Royals’ lack of power, as they rank 28th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Ryan Bergert will start for the Royals. Although he has a respectable ERA of 2.78, he has only pitched 7 games this season and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league. Projections indicate that he is likely to struggle, as he is expected to allow an average of 2.7 earned runs over just 4.4 innings pitched.

With the Red Sox’s strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB and their offense firing on all cylinders, they enter this game as significant favorites. The projections favor the Red Sox heavily, suggesting they will capitalize on the Royals’ weaknesses and extend their winning streak in this series.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Ryan Bergert – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Ryan Bergert has been given a below-average leash this year, recording an -11.0 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Adam Frazier has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 81.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals grades them out as the #26 club in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Garrett Crochet has gone to his four-seamer 13.6% less often this year (40.1%) than he did last year (53.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alex Bregman has had some very good luck this year. His .385 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-235)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 24 games at home (+16.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 101 games (+26.25 Units / 22% ROI)