Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
(+100/-120)-220
On August 9, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field for the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at 55-61, are having a below-average season, while the Rockies have struggled significantly with a dismal 30-85 record. In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks emerged victorious, further solidifying their dominance over the Rockies this season.
Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to take the mound, and despite a 4-7 record and a troubling ERA of 5.53, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.19 xFIP indicating better days ahead. Rodriguez’s ability to strike out 6.0 batters on average is a positive sign, although he does project to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.7 hits, which could keep the Rockies in the game.
On the other side, Colorado’s Bradley Blalock, who has struggled with a 1-3 record and a high ERA of 7.68, is projected to pitch 4.8 innings, which is below average. His low walk rate (6.3 BB%) might help him against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB for drawing walks, but his ability to limit damage will be crucial. The Rockies’ offense ranks a dismal 25th, indicating they may struggle to capitalize on any opportunities against Rodriguez.
With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Diamondbacks favored at a moneyline of -220, the projections suggest a strong likelihood for Arizona to score, with an implied team total of 5.61 runs. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, Arizona looks well-positioned to secure another win.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Bradley Blalock’s 2101-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 11th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under Total BasesArizona’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Colorado’s 88.9-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #23 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Eduardo Rodriguez has averaged 91.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)In the past week’s worth of games, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.7% rate (91st percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 99 games (+16.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 away games (+13.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Corbin Carroll has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)