Uncover the Game Forecast: Rangers vs Athletics Match Preview – 4/23/25

Texas Rangers

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Athletics

On April 23, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Texas Rangers at Sutter Health Park for the second game of their series. After a tough loss in yesterday’s matchup, where the Athletics fell short, both teams will look to regain momentum today. In the broader context, the Athletics are struggling this season with a record of 10-13, while the Rangers sit at a much more favorable 14-9.

The Athletics will send JP Sears to the mound, who has had an interesting season so far. Despite being ranked as the 168th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sears has posted an impressive ERA of 3.13 this year. However, his 4.63 xFIP indicates that he might have been fortunate thus far. His projection today suggests he will pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing about 3.2 earned runs on average, which could pose challenges given that the Rangers’ offense is currently ranked 26th in the league.

Kumar Rocker will take the hill for the Rangers. While his 6.38 ERA isn’t ideal, his xFIP of 3.82 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and projections show he could perform better going forward. Rocker is projected to pitch about 5.2 innings today, allowing around 2.5 earned runs. The Athletics, boasting the 9th best offense in MLB this season, will seek to capitalize on any mistakes Rocker makes.

With both teams having equal moneyline odds of -110 and implied team totals of 4.75 runs, this matchup is poised to be closely contested. The Athletics offense, particularly potent with the 8th most home runs this season, will be looking to assert itself against a pitcher who has struggled with consistency. Expect an intriguing battle as both teams try to find their footing in this American League West showdown.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Among all SPs, Kumar Rocker’s fastball spin rate of 2151.8 rpm is in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Adolis Garcia has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 94.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s matchup, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.1% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kumar Rocker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Nicholas Kurtz, Max Muncy).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Shea Langeliers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 58% ROI)