New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-120/+100)-155
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets continue their National League Championship series on October 14, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers holding a 1-0 lead after a commanding 9-0 victory over the Mets on October 13, they look to capitalize on their momentum. Los Angeles showcases an electric offense, ranking 1st in MLB for both overall performance and home runs. Meanwhile, the Mets have no shortage of power themselves, ranking 4th in home runs.
On the mound, the Dodgers are giving the ball to Ryan Brasier, who shifts from his usual bullpen role for this start. While his limited starting experience might be a concern, his solid 3.54 ERA suggests he’s capable of performing well in short stints. However, the projections indicate Brasier might struggle with allowing hits and strikeouts, making his matchup against the Mets’ 9th-ranked offense intriguing.
The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, a seasoned starter with a 3.47 ERA this season. Despite his solid numbers, his 4.04 xFIP suggests a touch of luck has been on his side. Manaea’s tendency to allow flyballs could be problematic against the Dodgers’ powerful lineup, especially considering their ability to turn those flyballs into home runs.
The Dodgers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to a 56% implied win probability. Meanwhile, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees even more potential for the Dodgers, giving them a 64% chance to win. Given this, there may be value in backing Los Angeles in this matchup. With the Dodgers projected to score 5.58 runs on average, they are poised to continue their offensive dominance. As the series progresses, the Mets will need Manaea to find a way to contain the Dodgers’ bats if they are to even the series.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Compared to the average hurler, Sean Manaea has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Jesse Winker has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Ryan Brasier – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+200/-270)Ryan Brasier will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing batters in today’s game… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-155)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense profiles as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+21.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+135)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 110 games (+22.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+205/-280)Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)