New York Mets
Athletics
(-110/-110)+110
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the New York Mets on April 11, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing performances in their last outings. The Athletics dropped their previous game 2-1, while the Mets suffered a shutout loss, falling 5-0. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and the stakes are high for both teams.
Currently, the Athletics sit at 5-8 this season, struggling to find their rhythm despite having the 11th best offense in MLB in terms of batting average and ranking 4th in home runs. However, they have also been plagued by a lack of speed on the base paths, ranking dead last in stolen bases. Oakland’s projected starter, JP Sears, has a solid ERA of 3.46, but his xFIP of 4.10 suggests he may be due for a regression. Sears, a left-handed pitcher, faces a Mets lineup that has been underwhelming, ranking 23rd in both batting average and home runs.
On the other hand, the Mets come into this game with an 8-4 record and a good chance to capitalize on the Athletics’ weaknesses. Griffin Canning, the Mets’ right-handed starter, has excelled with a 2.79 ERA, but similar to Sears, his xFIP of 3.69 indicates he too might not sustain his current success.
Betting markets are viewing this matchup as closely contested, with the Athletics holding a moneyline of +115, suggesting an implied probability of 45% for a win. In contrast, the Mets are favored at -135, with an implied win probability of 55%. Given the projections, the Athletics boast a high implied team total of 4.71 runs, indicating they might put up a fight despite their recent struggles.
New York Mets Insights
- Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Griffin Canning’s 2120.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 10th percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jose Siri has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (35% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher JP Sears is a pitch-to-contact type (1st percentile K%) — great news for Siri.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Brent Rooker has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.6-mph average to last year’s 96.7-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Athletics bats jointly rank among the worst in the league this year ( 4th-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)