Uncover the Game Forecast: Giants vs Royals Match Preview – 9/20/24

San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals gear up to host the San Francisco Giants on September 20, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, this interleague matchup presents intriguing stakes. The Royals, holding an 82-71 record, are having an above-average season and are still in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Giants, at 74-79, have had a below-average season and face long odds as the regular season winds down.

Kansas City is coming off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers on September 18, with Michael Wacha projected to take the mound. Wacha, a right-hander, boasts a strong 13-7 record with a 3.29 ERA this season. Despite his impressive numbers, his 4.13 xFIP suggests he might have been slightly fortunate, but he still ranks as the 70th-best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an above-average option for the Royals.

The Giants, on the other hand, are looking to bounce back from a 5-3 loss to the Orioles. San Francisco will send Mason Black to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled mightily with an 0-4 record and a 7.07 ERA. Despite these numbers, Black’s 5.17 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

Offensively, the Royals hold an edge with the 14th-best offense in MLB, featuring a particularly strong team batting average, ranked 7th. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be a standout, showcasing a .331 batting average and 32 home runs. In contrast, the Giants rank 21st in offense, struggling with consistency, especially in stolen bases, where they sit at 28th.

Despite the Royals being a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -190, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a 59% win probability for Kansas City. With a projected 5.21 runs, the Royals are anticipated to capitalize on Black’s vulnerabilities and secure the opening game of this series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Mason Black’s 2129-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 20th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Michael Wacha has tallied 17.3 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals bats as a group have been one of the best in baseball this year (3rd-) in regard to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games at home (+8.14 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 71 away games (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)