Uncover the Game Forecast: Giants vs D-Backs Match Preview – 9/24/24

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field on September 24, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing National League West showdown. The Diamondbacks, sitting at 87-70, are having a strong season and are in the hunt for playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Giants, at 78-79, are on the fringe of playoff contention, making every game crucial as the season winds down.

In yesterday’s matchup, the D-Backs claimed victory, adding another win to their successful season. This sets the stage for an interesting pitching duel in the second game of the series. Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Despite an average 4.66 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been unlucky, with a 3.62 xFIP pointing to better days ahead. Pfaadt’s ability to keep walks to a minimum could play a significant role against a Giants lineup that ranks 21st in offense this season.

The Giants counter with Logan Webb, whose impressive 3.58 ERA demonstrates his elite skill level. Although his xERA indicates some luck, his strong FIP suggests his performance is not entirely smoke and mirrors. Webb’s high groundball rate could be a key factor against the D-Backs’ powerful offense, which ranks 4th in home runs, potentially neutralizing Arizona’s long-ball capabilities.

Offensively, Arizona shines with the 1st-ranked offense in MLB, boasting high rankings in batting average and home runs. The Giants’ offense, however, struggles at 21st overall, with weaknesses in batting average and stolen bases. The D-Backs’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, complements their offense well, while the Giants’ bullpen, at 4th, isn’t far behind.

Despite the Diamondbacks being the betting favorites with a 59% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this matchup as tightly contested, giving a slight edge to the Giants with a 49% win probability. With an implied team total of 4.39 runs for Arizona and 3.61 for San Francisco, the game promises to be a competitive affair where betting on the Giants might offer value.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Logan Webb’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (45.9 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Out of all SPs, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2557 rpm is in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Gabriel Moreno has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 75.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.2% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 94 games (+28.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)