Uncover the Game Forecast: Giants vs D-Backs Match Preview – 9/24/24

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants face off on September 24, 2024, at Chase Field, there’s plenty at stake in this National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a solid 87-70 record, are having a strong season and are in a good position for a playoff push. On the other hand, the Giants, sitting at 78-79, are having an average season and are likely on the outside looking in when it comes to postseason contention.

In the first game of this series, the Diamondbacks secured a win, adding more pressure on the Giants to respond. Arizona’s offense, ranked 1st in MLB, is a force to be reckoned with, leading in several categories, including batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Giants’ offense struggles, ranking 21st overall, with particular weaknesses in team batting average and stolen bases.

The pitching matchup features Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt against San Francisco’s Logan Webb. Pfaadt has had an average year with a 4.66 ERA but shows promise with a 3.62 xFIP, suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky. Webb, ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher, has been elite, boasting a 3.58 ERA. However, his 4.29 xERA indicates he might have been fortunate this season.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a close contest, projecting a 51% win probability for the Giants, slightly higher than their implied odds. This suggests potential value in betting on San Francisco, especially given Webb’s ability to induce groundballs, which could neutralize the Diamondbacks’ power-heavy lineup. While Arizona remains the betting favorite with a -140 moneyline, the Giants’ underdog status at +115 might attract savvy bettors looking for an edge in this tight showdown.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Webb’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (45.9 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all SPs, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2557 rpm is in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Ketel Marte has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.2% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 94 games (+28.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)