Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)+105
On July 10, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park for the fourth game of their series. The Padres enter this matchup with a record of 49-43, showcasing an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks are hovering around .500 at 46-47. The stakes are moderately high for both teams, especially given the tight race within the National League West.
In their most recent game, the Padres fell to the Diamondbacks, making today’s matchup a chance for redemption. San Diego will look to Randy Vasquez on the mound, who has struggled with control this season, evidenced by his 10.7% walk rate. Vasquez has a 3-4 record with a decent 3.79 ERA but is projected to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.0 innings. His high flyball rate and the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, ranked 4th best in MLB with 137 home runs, could spell trouble for him.
Conversely, Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for Arizona. The lefty has a 3-5 record and a concerning 5.78 ERA but has been somewhat unlucky with a lower-than-expected xFIP of 3.82. He is anticipated to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. Despite being a high-flyball pitcher as well, the Padres’ offense ranks 27th in MLB in home runs, a statistic that may work in Rodriguez’s favor.
Both bullpens have contrasting profiles; the Padres rank 5th best, while the Diamondbacks sit at 20th. This disparity could prove pivotal, especially in a close game projected to total around 8.5 runs. Given the advanced-stat projections, while the Padres have the edge in bullpen quality, the Diamondbacks’ offense may ultimately dictate the outcome.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-125)The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Randy Vasquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 79 games (+14.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)