Uncover the Game Forecast: Cardinals vs Cubs Head-to-Head Analysis 8/04/24)

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 4, 2024, in a pivotal matchup in the National League Central. Both teams are vying for position, with the Cubs sitting at 54-59 and the Cardinals at 57-54. The Cubs are currently struggling, having lost to the Cardinals 5-4 in their last outing on August 3, 2024.

Justin Steele is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Despite a challenging season, where he holds a 2-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.38, Steele ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his recent performance was concerning; he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. In contrast, Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals has had a less favorable season, with an 8-8 record and an ERA of 4.99. Mikolas has shown some potential to improve, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.24, suggesting he may have been unlucky this year.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 20th in MLB despite their best hitter, Ian Happ, putting up respectable numbers. However, they struggle with consistency, evident in their performance against a Cardinals bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offense, led by Alec Burleson, has been average, ranking 18th overall.

The projections favor the Cubs, expecting them to score an average of 5.18 runs against the Cardinals’ average projection of 4.42 runs. With a high implied team total of 4.60 runs, the Cubs are seen as betting favorites. This game is crucial for the Cubs to gain momentum and turn their season around.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+125)
  Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-200/+155)
  Tallying 17.9 outs per game per started this year on average, Justin Steele falls in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Miguel Amaya has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 77.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)