Uncover the Game Forecast: Blue Jays vs D-Backs Head-to-Head Analysis 7/12/24)

Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks (47-47) are set to face the Toronto Blue Jays (43-50) on July 12, 2024, at Chase Field in what should be an intriguing interleague matchup. The D-Backs, who are having an average season, will be looking to continue their momentum after a narrow 1-0 win over the Braves on July 11. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, also come into this game on a high note, having defeated the Giants 5-3 in their last outing.

Arizona will feature Ryne Nelson on the mound, who holds a 6-6 record and a 5.08 ERA this season. Despite these lackluster numbers, his 4.58 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may be poised for better performances. Nelson’s low strikeout rate (15.3%) could be a concern against Toronto’s patient lineup, which ranks 6th in walks. However, Nelson’s control might mitigate this advantage.

Toronto will counter with Yariel Rodriguez, who has a solid 3.56 ERA but a higher 4.30 xFIP, indicating he might regress. Rodriguez’s 1-3 record and limited innings pitched per start (4.4) could spell trouble, especially against a D-Backs offense that ranks 10th in MLB.

Offensively, Arizona holds the edge. The D-Backs rank 8th in team batting average and 10th overall in offense, while the Blue Jays lag behind at 21st in both categories. Christian Walker has been the standout for Arizona, boasting a .261 batting average, 22 home runs, and an .834 OPS. Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads his team with a .287 batting average and a .809 OPS, but the Blue Jays’ lack of power (26th in home runs) and speed (26th in stolen bases) could be their downfall.

Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, with Arizona ranked 18th and Toronto 23rd in the Power Rankings. Given these factors, the D-Backs are slight favorites with a -120 moneyline and an implied win probability of 52%, perfectly aligning with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which also gives Arizona a 52% chance to win. Expect a close contest, but Arizona’s more balanced attack might just tip the scales in their favor.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Recording 11.4 outs per start this year on average, Yariel Rodriguez places in the 1st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Ryne Nelson has utilized his cut-fastball 7.5% more often this year (22.3%) than he did last season (14.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-570)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.25 Units / 205% ROI)