Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Royals vs D-Backs – Friday, July 4th, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on July 4, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a tight race, albeit with different trajectories. The Diamondbacks, currently 43-44, are having an average season, while the Royals sit at 41-47, reflecting a below-average performance. This matchup is crucial for both squads as they look to gain momentum, especially after the Diamondbacks suffered a disappointing 7-2 loss to the Royals the day before.

On the mound, Arizona will send out Eduardo Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season with a 3-4 record and a 5.13 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics indicate that Rodriguez has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.89 xFIP suggests he could improve moving forward. He faces a Royals lineup that has struggled significantly this season, ranking 30th in MLB in home runs with only 58 long balls. This matchup might favor Rodriguez, as his high flyball rate could be less damaging against a team that lacks power.

Kris Bubic, also a left-handed pitcher, will start for Kansas City. With a solid 6-6 record and an impressive 2.25 ERA, Bubic has been one of the brighter spots for the Royals. However, projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as his 3.36 xFIP indicates he may not maintain this level of performance.

Arizona’s offense has been a strength, ranking 3rd in MLB for runs scored this season, while Kansas City’s offense is struggling at 28th. Given the Diamondbacks’ potent lineup and Rodriguez’s favorable matchup against a weak Royals offense, Arizona may have the upper hand in this contest. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, suggesting a potentially close game, but the Diamondbacks should be seen as the more favorable team to come out on top.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Kris Bubic’s 2422-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 81st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Arizona (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals bats collectively grade out 28th- in the game for power this year when using their 7.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tim Tawa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the past two weeks, Tim Tawa’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Randal Grichuk hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 63 games (+13.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 66 games (+22.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.50 Units / 67% ROI)