Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Red Sox vs Rangers – Sunday, August 04, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers welcome the Boston Red Sox to Globe Life Field on August 4, 2024, for the third game of their series. In a tightly contested matchup yesterday, the Rangers edged the Red Sox 7-4, showcasing their potential to pull off an upset. Currently, the Rangers sit at 4th in the American League West with a 53-58 record, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the American League East at 58-51, highlighting a significant disparity in overall performance this season.

The pitching matchup features Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers and Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. Eovaldi, ranked 59th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a solid season with an 8-4 record and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, his xERA of 3.93 suggests he may be due for regression. Over his last outing, Eovaldi pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, while striking out 2 batters. He is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is on the positive side for his team.

On the other side, Pivetta ranks 83rd among starting pitchers and has a 5-7 record with a 4.47 ERA. His underlying numbers indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this year, so there is potential for improvement moving forward. Pivetta performed well in his last start, pitching 7 innings with 3 earned runs and 10 strikeouts.

Offensively, the disparity between the two teams is striking. The Red Sox rank 3rd overall in MLB, bolstered by strong performances from players like Jarren Duran, who leads with a .292 batting average and 24 stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 23rd in MLB for offense, struggling to put up consistent runs. Despite this, projections favor the Rangers slightly, suggesting they could be a valuable bet today as they look to build on their recent win and improve their standings.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2284 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2338 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.319 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .331 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Nathan Eovaldi is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Corey Seager has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 97.2-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)