Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Phillies vs D-Backs – Friday, September 19, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field on September 19, 2025, the stakes are clear. With the Diamondbacks sitting at 77-76, they’re fighting for every win to keep their Wild Card hopes alive, while the Phillies, boasting a strong 91-62 record, are looking to maintain their momentum as they push toward the postseason.

In their previous matchup, Arizona’s Ryne Nelson is projected to take the mound. Nelson has had a solid season, with a 3.34 ERA that reflects his ability to limit runs, although his 4.07 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of success. He’s earned a 7-3 record and averages 5.3 innings pitched, with projections indicating he will allow about 2.7 earned runs and strike out 5 batters. However, he has struggled with hits allowed, projected to give up 5.3, which could be a concern against the potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, Taijuan Walker is expected to start for Philadelphia. With a 4.17 ERA and a troubling 5.7 projected hits allowed, Walker has struggled this season, reflected in his below-average strikeout rate of 3.3. Despite his challenges, the projections indicate that he could still hold his own, making this matchup an intriguing battle of starting pitchers.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 5th in MLB, showcasing their strength at the plate, while the Phillies are not far behind at 4th. This should lead to a competitive game, especially considering that the game total is set at a high 9.5 runs. With Arizona’s implied team total sitting at 4.92 runs, they might find the edge they need to secure a crucial win, especially as they look to capitalize on Walker’s recent inconsistencies.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (63.3 compared to 56% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Corbin Carroll has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Adrian Del Castillo, Tim Tawa, Blaze Alexander).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+19.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 away games (+18.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)