Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Phillies vs Braves – July 06, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies square off in a crucial National League East matchup on July 6, 2024, at Truist Park. The Phillies, currently boasting a 58-30 record, are having a stellar season, while the Braves, at 47-39, are also performing well. This game is the second in the series, with the Phillies taking the first game 8-6, despite being underdogs.

The Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Schwellenbach, ranked the 65th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a tough season with a 1-4 record and a 5.68 ERA. However, his 3.79 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could improve. Schwellenbach projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.1 walks while striking out 4.6 batters. His control will be key against the Phillies’ patient offense, which ranks 5th in walks.

Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies. Suarez, the 30th best starting pitcher, has been excellent this season with a 10-2 record and a 2.27 ERA. However, his 2.92 xFIP indicates some luck. Suarez projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.8 walks while striking out 5.2 batters. His low walk rate could play into the Braves’ hands, as they rank 26th in walks.

Offensively, the Phillies have the edge, ranking 4th overall and excelling in batting average (3rd), home runs (5th), and stolen bases (4th). The Braves are more average, ranking 14th overall, 16th in batting average, and 13th in home runs, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 27th.

With the Braves’ bullpen ranked 7th and the Phillies’ 4th, both teams have strong relief options. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 57% win probability, higher than the betting market’s implied 52%. This suggests value in betting on Atlanta, especially with their home-field advantage and Schwellenbach’s potential for a turnaround.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.9 mph this year (90.3 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Trea Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .341 rate is considerably higher than his .273 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Jarred Kelenic is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 69 games (+23.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games (+20.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)