Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
(-120/+100)-115
On September 3, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of an interleague series. The Blue Jays, with a record of 67-72, are having a below-average season, while the Phillies are performing well at 81-56. This matchup is crucial for both teams, albeit for different reasons; the Blue Jays are looking to salvage their season, while the Phillies aim to maintain their strong playoff positioning.
In their last outing, the Blue Jays fell short, continuing a trend of inconsistency. They are projected to start Chris Bassitt, who has had a challenging year with a 9-13 record and a 4.27 ERA. Although Bassitt ranks as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he has shown flashes of being above average. He is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings and projects to allow 2.7 earned runs, but his average of 5.3 hits allowed per game raises some concerns.
On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Tyler Phillips, who has had a solid record of 4-1 this season, despite a troubling ERA of 5.50. Phillips has struggled with strikeouts, boasting an 18.0 K% and is facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in the league for fewest strikeouts. This matchup may favor the Blue Jays, as Phillips could find it difficult to exploit the Blue Jays’ contact-heavy approach.
Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 16th in MLB, while the Phillies boast the 7th best offense, highlighted by their 3rd best batting average. The Blue Jays will need Will Wagner to continue his recent hot streak, as he has been their best hitter over the last week, recording 9 hits and 4 runs. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper has been a standout for the Phillies, further enhancing their already potent lineup.
With the Blue Jays’ moneyline set at -115 and an implied team total of 4.30 runs, they are seen as slight favorites in this matchup. The Game Total is currently at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tyler Phillips in the 11th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)Bryson Stott has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 80.6-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-105)The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)In his last outing, Chris Bassitt was on point and compiled 9 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-280)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.271) may lead us to conclude that George Springer has been unlucky this year with his .216 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Toronto Blue Jays bats jointly have been among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 6th-worst) when assessing their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)