Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Padres vs Dodgers – Sunday, August 17, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on August 17, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight, especially following the Dodgers’ dominant 6-0 victory in their last game. Both teams are in the thick of the National League West race, with the Dodgers holding a record of 70-53 and the Padres closely trailing at 69-54.

The Dodgers are projected to start Tyler Glasnow, who has been solid this season with a 3.08 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 29.9%. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.25 FIP indicates potential regression. Glasnow’s last outing was impressive, pitching 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 8 strikeouts, and only 4 hits allowed. He faces a Padres offense that ranks 29th in home runs, which could play into his groundball-heavy approach (48% GB rate).

On the other side, Yu Darvish is slated to take the mound for the Padres. With a troubling 5.61 ERA this season, Darvish has struggled, although his 4.30 xFIP suggests he might improve. He pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run, but his overall inconsistency could be a concern against a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB offense.

The Dodgers’ offense, bolstered by their best hitter, has been exceptional, ranking 2nd in home runs and 5th in batting average. With an implied team total of 4.54 runs for this game, the projections favor the Dodgers, who are looking to maintain their momentum in this crucial series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Yu Darvish has utilized his four-seam fastball 5.2% less often this season (13.4%) than he did last year (18.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Ryan O’Hearn has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tyler Glasnow’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (95.3 mph) below where it was last year (96.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Michael Conforto has paced 1 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 15th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+14.17 Units / 12% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)