Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Marlins vs Rays – Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins gear up for their second game in the series on July 31, 2024, at Tropicana Field, both teams find themselves at different ends of the spectrum this season. The Rays are currently 54-52, having an average season, while the Marlins are struggling with a 39-67 record. Although not contending for a playoff spot, Miami’s recent games have showcased some impressive individual performances.

The Rays are projected to start Zach Eflin, a right-hander who has been reliable for them this season. On the other side, the Marlins will counter with right-hander Roddery Munoz. Eflin’s opponent, Munoz, faces a tough challenge given Miami’s overall struggles this season. The Rays’ offense, despite ranking 23rd in team batting average and 26th in home runs, has shown flashes of speed with a 4th-place ranking in stolen bases. Conversely, the Marlins’ offense ranks 20th in batting average and 29th in home runs, making them one of the weakest hitting teams in the league.

In their last game, the Rays played the Marlins as well, setting the stage for a potentially decisive matchup in this series. Brandon Lowe has been on fire for Tampa Bay over the last week, boasting a .474 batting average, 1.565 OPS, and contributing 9 hits, 4 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in his last six games. Miami’s Josh Bell has also been impressive, hitting .440 with a 1.460 OPS, 11 hits, 5 runs, 7 RBIs, and 4 home runs over his last six games.

The Rays have a slight edge, especially with Eflin on the mound and their superior record. However, the explosive performances from players like Lowe and Bell add an element of unpredictability. Bettors should keep an eye on these key players and consider the disparities in team performance when placing their wagers.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Roddery Munoz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Roddery Munoz is expected to wring up 14.7 outs in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Taj Bradley’s change-up percentage has increased by 14% from last year to this one (13.9% to 27.9%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 77.4-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (-130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 away games (+8.20 Units / 137% ROI)